Bias variance tradeoff
It can be shown that average risk for square error loss can be decomposed into three components: $$ R_{\text{avg}}(h) = \mathbb{E}_{P_D} \mathbb{E}_{P_{x,y}} \left[ \left( h_D(x) - \hat{h}(x) \right)^2 \right] \quad \text{// variance (sensitivity to dataset)} $$ $$ + \mathbb{E}_{P_{x,y}} \left[ \left( \hat{h}(x) - h^*(x) \right)^2 \right] \quad \text{// bias (how different is avg classifier from optimum classifier)} $$ $$ + \mathbb{E}_{P_{x,y}} \left[ \left( h^*(x) - y \right)^2 \right] \quad \text{// irreducible noise (nothing can be done about this)} $$ where: ...